NFL Week 8 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)
November 5, 2020 – by Jason Lisk
The Pittsburgh Steelers forced turnovers against Baltimore to stay undefeated (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
Week 8 gave us a team staying undefeated by winning on the road as an underdog, lots of games involving potential windy weather in the Midwest and Northeast that impacted offenses, and Minnesota rising.
Pittsburgh won at Baltimore in a back-and-forth affair by relying on big plays by their defense (more on that below).Miami also won in Tua Tagovailoa’s first career start, by also creating turnovers.Minnesota finally got revenge against the Packers after losing three straight in the rivalry over the last two years.November weather set in to limit some offenses, but not necessarily scoring, as only two winning teams reached 400 total yards in Week 8.
In this post, we’ll examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 8, but also review some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading.
This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams may be setting up well to cover the spread in the future. (To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
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NFL Week 8 By the Betting Numbers
Biggest upset: Cincinnati over Tennessee (+7.5, +280 money line)Biggest ATS cover margin: Cincinnati over Tennessee (+18.5, won by 11 points as 7.5-point underdog)Most points above over/under line: LA Chargers-Denver (+16.5, 61 total points vs. O/U line of 44.5)Most points below over/under line: Las Vegas-Cleveland (-26, 22 total points vs. O/U line of 48.0)Most points scored vs. team expectation: Indianapolis (41 points vs. 26.25 expected)Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Cleveland (6 points vs. 24.5 expected)
Miami and Pittsburgh’s Big Wins Driven by Turnovers
Miami upset the Rams 28-17 in Week 8, but it wasn’t because of the offense. In fact, in Tua Tagovailoa’s first start, the Dolphins had a pathetic 145 yards of total offense on 13 drives, not including an end of half possession. The longest drive for Miami all day was 33 yards.
Miami won with four turnovers on defense, including a 78-yard fumble return. They also had a punt return for touchdown.
The 145 yards is the fewest by a winning team in 2020, and is the lowest by any team to win a game since Seattle beat Dallas with 136 total yards in 2017.
The second-fewest yards by a winning team in 2020 also happened in Week 8. Pittsburgh pulled off the win against Baltimore 28-24, and they did so despite being out-gained 457 to 221 by the Ravens. The Steelers got a pick-six of Lamar Jackson on the very first possession of the game, intercepted him another time, and forced him to fumble twice.
LA Chargers Cannot Hold Lead
The Los Angeles Chargers have been close, but have not been able to seal the win in a lot of different games this year. There was the loss in overtime to Kansas City, the loss at New Orleans where they had a 20-3 lead, and then what happened Sunday.
The Chargers took a 24-3 lead halfway through the 3rd quarter against Denver, but they only scored on two field goals from that point while allowing the Broncos to score four touchdowns. The final TD came with no time on the clock after a defensive pass interference call on fourth down to keep the Broncos alive.
What does this all mean? By predictive rating, the Chargers are likely a significantly better team than their 2-5 record indicated. Heading into Week 9, we rate them as a barely below-average team this year, and have them at a No. 15 ranking.
NFL Home Field Advantage in 2020
One of the things we are tracking this year is how home teams are performing, with many teams playing in front of no fans to start the year. In Week 8, home teams went 7-7 straight up and 8-6 ATS.
Weekly NFL Home Team Records, 2020 Season To Date
| Week | W | L | T | WIN PCT | ATS W | ATS L | ATS T | ATS PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% |
| 2 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 68.8% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% |
| 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 40.6% | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.7% |
| 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 30.8% | 5 | 10 | 0 | 33.3% |
| 5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 61.5% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 7 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1% |
| Overall | 60 | 58 | 1 | 50.8% | 55 | 64 | 0 | 46.2% |
However, last year, home teams were only 47.0% SU and 38.1% ATS through the first eight weeks of the season, performing even worse than this year. When sample sizes of games are small, you can see more extreme trends such as this one.
Over the previous five seasons (2015-2019), home teams have won 55.5% SU and 47.3% ATS in the first eight weeks. So the home win rate in 2020 is below its trailing five year average, but still running ahead of last season.
When comparing numbers against the spread, the win percentage is similar to the last five years. (However, the 2020 betting lines could be factoring in downward adjustments for home field advantage, allowing that ATS cover rate relative to the SU win percentage.)
2020 Point Spread Result Splits
Here’s how some of the more standard spilts look after Week 8:
| TYPE | ATS W | ATS L | ATS T | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 51 | 68 | 0 | 42.9% |
| Underdogs | 68 | 51 | 0 | 57.1% |
| Home Teams | 55 | 64 | 0 | 46.2% |
| Away Teams | 64 | 55 | 0 | 53.8% |
2020 Scoring vs. Historical Seasons
Weather concerns in the Midwest and Northeast reduced some Over/Under lines in Week 8, but Overs ended up hitting in 9 out of 15 games.
Scoring dipped only slightly from the yearly average, and we are still on pace for the highest scoring NFL season (by points scored per game) in NFL history.
Here’s a running tally of how overall NFL scoring so far in 2020 compares to the full season averages of recent seasons, based on average total points scored per game.
Average Points Scored Per Game, By Season
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.4 | 45.6 | 46.7 | 43.4 | 45.6 |
Turnovers, Miscues & Failures: Week 8 Edition
In this section each week, we list a summary of drives that ended with turnovers, but not only official turnovers like interceptions and fumbles.
We also tally up other high-leverage events that likely led to either loss of points or great field position for an opponent. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field goal attempts.
Week 8 Team ATS Records Based On Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed 4th Down Attempts
| Team | Turnovers | FG Miss | Downs | TOTAL | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Rams | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | Loss |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | Win |
| Dallas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | Loss |
| Baltimore | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Loss |
| Detroit | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | Loss |
| Carolina | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | Loss |
| Green Bay | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | Loss |
| LA Chargers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Loss |
| Cleveland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Loss |
| New Orleans | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Loss |
| NY Jets | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Loss |
| Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Loss |
| Chicago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Win |
| Kansas City | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Win |
| NY Giants | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Win |
| Buffalo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Loss |
| San Francisco | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Loss |
| Tampa Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Loss |
| Atlanta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Denver | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Indianapolis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Las Vegas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| New England | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Cincinnati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
| Minnesota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
| Seattle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
Teams with 3 or more miscues ended up 1-7 ATS in Week 8, with the only win coming in the Sunday Night Game that featured a comedy of errors between Dallas and Philadelphia.
The Eagles covered despite 4 turnovers and 2 failed fourth down attempts, in part because Dallas had three turnovers, a missed field goal, and a failed 4D attempt of their own.
Teams with 1 or fewer miscues went 9-3 ATS with two of the losses coming in games where the opponent also had one or fewer.
Drive-Ending Miscues By Team: 2020 Season Tally
Here’s a summary of the full season so far showing the net number of drives ending in turnovers or miscues for each team.
The top of this list, where teams have created more turnovers or benefited from more miscues, features a lot of teams with winning spread records. Miami is notable in that they’ve relied on now being tied for the best net results in miscues to start 4-3 SU (and 5-2 ATS).
At the other end, Philadelphia and Dallas came into Week 8 as the two teams at the bottom and did nothing to change that, combining for 11 turnovers and miscues in their matchup.
Teams that are a net +10 or better on miscues so far this season are 29-11-2 ATS; teams that are a net -10 or worse are 9-22 ATS.
2020 Season Summary, Drives Ending in Turnovers or Other Failed Plays
| Team | Mistakes | Opponent | Net | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 22 | 14 | 6-1 |
| Miami | 10 | 24 | 14 | 5-2 |
| Baltimore | 12 | 25 | 13 | 3-3-1 |
| Seattle | 8 | 21 | 13 | 5-2 |
| Kansas City | 10 | 22 | 12 | 6-2 |
| Tampa Bay | 10 | 20 | 10 | 4-3-1 |
| Atlanta | 14 | 19 | 5 | 3-5 |
| Cincinnati | 13 | 17 | 4 | 6-2 |
| Green Bay | 9 | 12 | 3 | 5-2 |
| Arizona | 13 | 16 | 3 | 5-2 |
| New Orleans | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3-4 |
| Tennessee | 12 | 14 | 2 | 2-5 |
| LA Rams | 18 | 19 | 1 | 4-4 |
| Chicago | 18 | 19 | 1 | 5-3 |
| Houston | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1-6 |
| Indianapolis | 13 | 13 | 0 | 4-3 |
| Buffalo | 16 | 15 | -1 | 3-5 |
| San Francisco | 17 | 15 | -2 | 4-4 |
| Washington | 17 | 15 | -2 | 3-3-1 |
| Detroit | 14 | 10 | -4 | 3-4 |
| LA Chargers | 15 | 11 | -4 | 4-2-1 |
| NY Giants | 18 | 14 | -4 | 5-3 |
| NY Jets | 21 | 17 | -4 | 1-7 |
| New England | 19 | 14 | -5 | 3-4 |
| Cleveland | 18 | 12 | -6 | 3-5 |
| Las Vegas | 11 | 5 | -6 | 4-3 |
| Denver | 23 | 16 | -7 | 5-2 |
| Minnesota | 15 | 8 | -7 | 4-3 |
| Carolina | 17 | 7 | -10 | 4-4 |
| Jacksonville | 23 | 12 | -11 | 2-5 |
| Philadelphia | 27 | 15 | -12 | 3-5 |
| Dallas | 27 | 11 | -16 | 0-8 |
2020 NFL ATS & Over/Under Performance By Team
Finally, here are updated against the point spread and over/under records so far in 2020. You can check out more trends on our BetIQ NFL betting trends page.
2020 NFL ATS and O/U Records
| Team | W | L | T | Streak ATS | Over | Under | Push | O/U Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5 | 2 | 0 | W3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | O1 |
| Atlanta | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | U2 |
| Baltimore | 3 | 4 | 0 | L2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | O2 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 5 | 0 | L4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | O1 |
| Carolina | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | U1 |
| Chicago | 5 | 3 | 0 | W1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| Cincinnati | 6 | 2 | 0 | W3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O3 |
| Cleveland | 3 | 5 | 0 | L3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | U1 |
| Dallas | 0 | 8 | 0 | L8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | U3 |
| Denver | 5 | 2 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O2 |
| Detroit | 3 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O1 |
| Green Bay | 5 | 2 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O1 |
| Houston | 1 | 6 | 0 | L2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | U1 |
| Indianapolis | 4 | 3 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O3 |
| Jacksonville | 2 | 5 | 0 | L5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O1 |
| Kansas City | 6 | 2 | 0 | W3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | U1 |
| LA Chargers | 5 | 2 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | O4 |
| LA Rams | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | U5 |
| Las Vegas | 4 | 3 | 0 | W1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | U1 |
| Miami | 5 | 2 | 0 | W3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | U2 |
| Minnesota | 4 | 3 | 0 | W1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | O2 |
| New England | 3 | 4 | 0 | W1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | O1 |
| New Orleans | 2 | 5 | 0 | L3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | O7 |
| NY Giants | 5 | 3 | 0 | W2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| NY Jets | 1 | 7 | 0 | L1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | U4 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | U2 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 1 | 0 | W5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | O1 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | O1 |
| Seattle | 5 | 2 | 0 | W1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | O3 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O2 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 5 | 0 | L2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | O1 |
| Washington | 4 | 3 | 0 | W2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | U3 |
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