NFL Week 6 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 6 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

October 11, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 6 kicking off today, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Week 6 features an AFC North rivalry game with big playoff implications when the Steelers (2-2-1) visit Cincinnati (4-1). The Steelers are coming off a blowout win vs. Atlanta, arguably their best performance of the season. The Steelers offense continues to produce, ranking fifth with 28.6 points per game. Pittsburgh had been a very pass-heavy offense while often playing from behind before last week, with the fifth highest pass play percentage in the NFL, but was able to be more balanced against the lowly Falcons defense. RB James Conner netted his second career 100-yard game, and Pittsburgh is counting on him again while facing a Bengals defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry (23rd in the NFL). The Bengals defense bailed out the team with two defensive touchdowns late in last week’s 27-17 win vs. Miami, but have been mediocre overall, allowing the 12th most points (26.0) and eighth most yards (394.8) per game.

Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton continues his rebound season, leading the team to an average of 30.6 points per game (fourth most) so far. Receivers A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd also have continued to play at an elite level, both hovering near 400 yards receiving through five games. Finally, the Bengals’ running game produced last week with the return of RB Joe Mixon from a knee injury, as he rushed 22 times for 93 yards vs. Miami. Pittsburgh’s struggles on defense are well documented this year, particularly against the pass, with the Steelers yielding 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 296.2 passing yards per game. That said, Pittsburgh has consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks, ranking fourth in sack percentage at 8.48%. Cincinnati’s revamped offensive line has done a nice job protecting Dalton (ninth best sack percentage allowed) but could be challenged this week.

Head to Head: The Steelers have won the last six matchups dating back to December, 2015. Four of those games were at Cincinnati.

Point Spread on Thursday: Cincinnati -2.5

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

If you enjoy defense and low-scoring games, you could be in for a treat when the Ravens visit Tennessee on Sunday. The over/under line for this game in the betting markets was just 41.0 points as of Wednesday morning, and both offenses are coming off sub-par performances in Week 5. The Ravens managed just three field goals in a 12-9 overtime loss at Cleveland, but they still average 26.4 points per game, though in large part to their 47-point output vs. Buffalo in Week 1. The Baltimore offense has struggled since then, particularly in the running game, and is now averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. QB Joe Flacco got plenty of praise during the preseason, yet the team is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt (ninth worst in the NFL). Tennessee’s defense has been stellar at stopping the pass, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt (sixth best) and 210.0 passing yards per game (third best), so this game looks like another big challenge for Flacco vs. a defense that has allowed only 17.2 points per game.

For all of Tennessee’s success defensively, the Titans’ offense has been downright awful so far in 2018; they’ve averaged only 17.4 points per game, fourth worst in the NFL. Despite being the most run-heavy team in football (47.7% rushing play rate), they’ve averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. QB Marcus Mariota’s injured arm and the loss of Pro Bowl TE Delanie Walker in Week 1 have almost certainly contributed to the offensive struggles, and Tennessee’s offense will have their toughest test yet against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL (15.4) and just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The Titans have been held without a touchdown in two out of their first five games, finding the end zone on only 45 percent of their trips to the Red Zone (fifth worst).

Head to Head: The teams have split their last six matchups 3-3, dating back to 2006. The Titans won the last game 23-20 in November of last season.

Point Spread on Thursday: Baltimore -2.5 (after opening at -1)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Fans of offense and star quarterbacks, on the other hand, should find this week’s Sunday night matchup appealing, as Kansas City’s red-hot QB Patrick Mahomes takes on Tom Brady in Foxboro. The Chiefs are the AFC’s only remaining unbeaten team at 5-0, thanks largely to the heroics of Mahomes and his offensive supporting cast. The Chiefs have averaged 35.0 points per game, second best in the NFL, and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (third best). The efficient Mahomes finally threw his first interceptions of the year vs. Jacksonville last week, but still has an impressive ratio of 14 TDs to two INTs. While New England has allowed only 6.3 yards per pass attempt this year, their pass rush has struggled with a league-worst 3.4% sack rate. The most recent matchup between the two sides was last year’s season opener, when RB Kareem Hunt made his debut and finished with 246 yards from scrimmage and three scores. Hunt has averaged only 4.0 yards per carry this year, but again could be an important weapon against a Pats defense that’s allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

New England has lost games at Jacksonville and Detroit this season, but the Patriots are 3-0 at home with the offense averaging 34 points per game at Foxboro. Brady seemed to be more comfortable last week with WR Julian Edelman back from suspension, throwing for 341 yards and three scores, while rookie RB Sony Michel has 210 yards rushing over his last two games. Kansas City’s defense continues to be poor against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry, and lost star OLB Justin Houston to a hamstring injury last week. The fact that the Chiefs added two outside linebackers from outside the organization to this week’s roster speaks to their need, and Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will likely try to exploit that situation. It’s no coincidence the game’s over/under line in the betting markets was 59.0 points as of Wednesday morning, the fourth highest total since 2003.

Head to Head: The teams have split the last four matchups, with the Chiefs winning the most recent game 42-27 in Week 1 of last season at New England.

Point Spread on Thursday: New England -3.5

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

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