NFL Week 3 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

NFL Week 3 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

September 20, 2018 – by Seth Trachtman

With NFL Week 3 kicking off on Thursday night, here’s a preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Standing at a 1-1, and not far from being 0-2, the Saints have been one of the early season’s most disappointing teams after losing to the Bucs and barely beating the Browns, both at home. They’ll go on the road for the first time this season to face the rival Falcons, who are now 1-1 after beating the Panthers at home in Week 2. The Saints had a more balanced offense than usual last season, mixing in more runs with Drew Brees passes, but they have been forced to be more pass-heavy so far in 2018 while chasing opponents from behind; after two games they’ve thrown the ball 70% of the time, 3rd most in the NFL. New Orleans might show more balance this week given Atlanta’s major injuries at middle linebacker (Deion Jones) and safety (Keanu Neal), which likely have contributed to Atlanta allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, including 6.7 yards per carry vs. Carolina on Sunday. Saints RB Alvin Kamara only has 21 carries through two games, but could be set for a larger workload.

Of course, the Saints defense seems to have its own share of issues too. Despite working to address its secondary last season, New Orleans ranks dead last in opponent yards per pass attempt (11.2) after two games. The Saints were surprisingly thrashed by Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1, and Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor, coming off a poor Browns debut in Week 1, also had some success against New Orleans, finishing with 8.2 yards per attempt. Falcons QB Matt Ryan had a solid game against Carolina (272 yards / 2 TD / 1 INT) and could be set to feast on the New Orleans secondary in another home game. Starting running back Devonta Freeman (knee) is expected to miss another game, but Tevin Coleman proved capable as the bell cow back in Week 2, with 6.7 yards per carry on 16 attempts.

Head to Head: The teams have split the last four meetings, with the Saints winning the last matchup in December 2017.

Point Spread on Thu morning: Falcons -3, after opening at -3.5

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

It’s the first Battle of Los Angeles this century, as the Chargers make the short yet surely traffic-clogged drive to the Coliseum. The Chargers got their first win at Buffalo in Week 2 after a disappointing loss to the rival Chiefs to open the year. QB Philip Rivers may be going on age 37, but he has been on fire early this season, throwing for 680 yards and six touchdowns through two weeks. Rivers will face his toughest test so far against a Rams defense that dominated the Raiders and Cardinals in the first two weeks, with new personnel Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, and Marcus Peters already looking like they’re comfortable in coordinator Wade Phillips’ defense. The Chargers gave RB Melvin Gordon a bit of a rest during Week 2 in their blowout win, but he will likely play an important role in keeping the offense balanced in this game.

For the second straight year, the Rams offense looks like the Todd Gurley show. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year has 220 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns through two games, while QB Jared Goff has also been efficient while playing with leads. With elite pass rusher Joey Bosa (foot) still sidelined for the Chargers, Goff may continue to get ample time to throw when the Rams pass, though the Chargers did manage to register five sacks against a weak Bills offensive line in Week 2. The Chargers’ defense was first in the NFL last season in terms of allowing only 17.0 points per game, but it has yielded 29 points/game in two games so far. At this very early point in the season, that could indicate either decline or simply randomness, but either way, this will probably be a tough week for a defense to get back on track, facing the Rams.

Head to Head: The teams have split the last four matchups, which took place when they were in San Diego and St. Louis, respectively. The Chargers won the most recent game in 2014.

Point Spread on Thu morning: LA Rams -7 (same as open)

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line MovementInjury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

If we told you before the season that one of these two teams would be undefeated and the other winless after two games, we’re pretty sure your respective guesses would have been wrong. The Steelers, expected to be a very strong team this year, tied at Cleveland in Week 1 after coughing up six turnovers, and were shredded by Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes at home in Week 2. Pittsburgh now faces another test with Tampa Bay backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick shocking the league with his play two games in, and likely doing enough to keep the starting job when usual starter Jameis Winston returns from suspension in Week 4. Fitzpatrick has thrown for over 400 yards and four scores in consecutive weeks, and could be extra motivated to make sure he stays on the field in future weeks. It may make things a bit easier for the Steelers defense that the Bucs have been a one-dimensional offense to start, averaging just 2.7 yards per rush, but Pittsburgh still got bludgeoned by the Chiefs passing game in Week 2.

The strength of Pittsburgh’s offense looks similar to Tampa Bay’s, given the absence of star RB Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers worked to establish the run with James Conner in Week 1 but weren’t able to get any breakthroughs against the Chiefs, and Pittsburgh so far is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. QB Ben Roethlisberger may well be busy again after throwing 60 passes in Week 2, as the Bucs have allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt in the first two weeks vs. Drew Brees and Nick Foles. Vegas is consequently expecting a high-scoring affair, with both teams averaging 29-plus points through two weeks and the over/under at 53.5 points as of Thursday morning, up from an open of 51. In addition, though the Steelers are still currently favored in this game, the point spread has moved in favor of Tampa Bay since opening, perhaps because of news reports of team drama and possible discipline involving star WR Antonio Brown.

Head to Head: Tampa Bay won the last meeting (2014), halting a streak of four straight wins by the Steelers.

Point Spread on Thu morning: Pittsburgh -1.5, after opening at -3

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)Point Spread Odds & Line MovementOver Under Odds & Line Movement Injury ReportHead to Head Results HistoryEfficiency StatsStat Splits

Game winner, point spread, over/under and money line value picks from our algorithmic models are now available for all NFL Week 3 games. See our premium NFL betting picks.

 

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