Best MLB Player Props & Predictions Today – Home Run & Strikeout Picks for Aug. 20

Aug 17, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter William Contreras (24) reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Cleveland Guardians in the fourth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY SportsA pitchers’ duel between Zack Wheeler and Reynaldo Lopez highlights the 15 MLB games on Tuesday, Aug. 20Cole Ragans leads the red-hot Royals against the struggling AngelsBelow, see today’s best MLB player-props picks and predictions

A busy 15-game slate in Major League Baseball on Tuesday includes multiple games with big playoff implications plus an excellent (at least on paper) pitching matchup in Atlanta between the Braves’ Reynaldo Lopez (7-4, 2.06 ERA) and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler (12-5, 272 ERA).

Tuesday’s slate also includes some hitters facing starters they’ve taken deep multiple times, and that’s where Tuesday’s MLB player-prop picks are going to start off. All four of today’s picks are priced at +135 or higher. The table below shows which sportsbook is currently offering the best odds for each prop.

MLB Picks & Best Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 20

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Odds as of August 20. Download the best MLB betting app for Tuesday’s 15-game slate. 

William Contreras Over 0.5 HR

My first pick today is Milwaukee’s All-Star catcher William Contreras to go deep against Erick Fedde and the St Louis Cardinals. Contreras has absolutely hammered Fedde during his career, going 5-for-8 with two homers, two RBI, two walks, and just one strikeout, which amounts to a .625 batting average and preposterous 2.075 OPS. When Fedde was still with the White Sox earlier this year, Contreras went 3-for-5 with an RBI during a 12-5 Brewers victory.

Contreras has also been showing off his pop the last two weeks with five of his 17 home runs coming in the last 11 games. Since the start of August, Contreras has raised his OPS from .781 to .819 while also cranking out six doubles.

Fedde, meanwhile, has been subpar since joining the Cards from the White Sox at the deadline. He’s allowed 16 hits, four walks, and 10 earned runs in 16 innings  with just 12 Ks. His ERA has increased from 3.11 to 3.40 in just three starts with his new team.

Phillies vs Braves Under 3.5 in First 5 Innings

Today’s second pick is the Phillies and Braves to stay under 3.5 in the first five innings of their game at Truist Park. There’s nothing complicated about the rationale here. Zack Wheeler and Reynaldo Lopez have been two of the most-dominant pitchers all season, and both have good numbers against the hitters they’ll be facing on Tuesday.

In 75 ABs, Philadelphia’s current lineup has a .240 average and .705 OPS against Lopez with just one home run.

Wheeler has been even better against the Braves, holding the Atlanta hitters to a .227 average and .642 OPS in a massive 211 at-bat sample size.

The main reason for concern here is that Lopez has missed the last three weeks with a forearm injury, but I still like this bet at significant plus-money.

Ronel Blanco over 5.5 Ks + HOU moneyline vs BOS

The third pick is a same-game parlay with Astros starter Ronel Blanco to go over 5.5 strikeouts paired with the Houston moneyline against the visiting Boston Red Sox.

Blanco is sporting a strong strikeout rate of 24.3% which is over 25% against the current Boston lineup. He only recorded five Ks the last time he faced the Red Sox (an 8-4 Houston win on August 9) but over his last 21.1 innings, he’s piled up 25 Ks, including a season-high nine in just 4.1 innings against the Dodgers on July 27.

As a team, the Bo-Sox have the third-highest K-rate this year, whiffing in 24.9% of their plate appearances. Boston has also been on a fairly ugly slide since the All-Star break, going just 12-16 and falling 3.5 games out of a Wild Card berth. Meanwhile, the Astros are 17-10 and have opened up a five-game lead on the Mariners at the top of the AL West.

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Jose Miranda Over 0.5 RBI

Today’s final MLB player-prop pick is Minnesota’s Jose Miranda to record at least one RBI against Martin Perez and the Padres. The Twins’ third baseman is in a pretty ugly slump, power-wise. He hasn’t homered in 24 straight games and doesn’t have an RBI in his last six, but Perez will be a welcome sight on the mound. Miranda is 2-for-6 against Perez and both hits were longballs. Miranda has also picked up four RBI in those six ABs.

Perez has been better since he was traded from the Pirates to the Padres at the deadline, lowering his ERA from 5.20 to 4.62 in three starts. But those three starts came against the Rockies at home, Marlins on the road, and Pirates at home. Those three teams sit second, third, and fourth-last in the MLB in wRC+ (only ahead of the White Sox). Minnesota is seventh in both wRC+ and wOBA, and I expect Perez to yield runs.

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