Pick’em Advice For NFL Week 11: Five Value Picks for Football Office Pools

Pick’em Advice For NFL Week 11: Five Value Picks for Football Office Pools (2019)

November 12, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Carson Wentz will get his firs opportunity to beat New England this week (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

A short note to begin: Now that we’re entering the home stretch of the 2019 season, the full text of our weekly NFL pick’em picks article will be available to TeamRankings premium subscribers only. (If you’re already a premium subscriber, just make sure you’re logged in, and you’ll see the full article.)

For those interested in subscribing, we just rolled out a new weekly subscription option, plus we’re offering a special discount on our rest-of-season pick’em package, which includes our customized weekly picks for your pools.

We hope you have enjoyed our analysis, and thanks for reading. Whether you subscribe or not, best of luck (and skill) the rest of the way!

Now back to our scheduled program…

We’ll get to the value opportunities this week shortly, but first, let’s quickly summarize last week’s results.

NFL Week 1 Picks

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Recap of Last Week’s Picks

Last week, we highlighted four value favorites and a slight underdog. The top value favorite, Cleveland, won at home against Buffalo, and Chicago also won against Detroit (and became an even better value with the late news that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was out). Dallas and San Francisco both lost in close games at home, with the 49ers’ undefeated season ending after a missed field goal in overtime, followed by Seattle hitting one as time expired.

Meanwhile, the Jets beat the Giants in the Battle of New York, making our highlighted picks 3-2 last week. In those same five games, the public only averaged 1.8 wins based on pick popularity data, so three wins out of that group was once again a very good result for a group of games that featured plenty of upsets, and unpopular teams winning.

Value Picks For NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pools

Using Vegas odds, data-driven predictions, and pick popularity data from national football pick’em contests, we’ve analyzed the entire NFL Week 11 slate and identified the best value picking opportunities. This week, early pick popularity numbers show several games where the public is strongly on one side in matchups that the oddsmakers think are far closer to even.

Keep in mind that we are not saying that you should make all five of the picks below. The best Week 11 picks for your NFL pool depend on characteristics such as its size, rules, and prize structure; our Football Pick’em Picks product will recommend weekly picks for you based on all those factors.

What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 11 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.

Note: Win odds and pick popularity estimates below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

Value Gambles

If you’re going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. Take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is on you.

The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, it may not be worth the risk. However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes, highly unpopular underdogs have a compelling profile.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New England)

The Patriots will be trying to bounce back after their first loss of the season to Baltimore, in a rematch of the Super Bowl from two seasons ago. The Patriots come into this one as a 3.5-point favorite on the road, with implied win odds of 63% from the betting markets. Our models are a little more optimistic about Philadelphia’s chances, giving them a 42% of pulling the mild upset.

The public, meanwhile, is a strong believer in the Patriots getting both revenge and a bounce back, with 82% going with New England. That means this game has the highest difference between our projected win odds and the public pick rate for Week 11. New England’s offense has relatively struggled this season, which was largely masked by playing a very easy schedule, until meeting Baltimore. Philadelphia is still the second-best team the Patriots have played all season, so taking a chance on the upset is a decent option in weekly contests of all sizes.

Luckily for pick’em players, the Week 11 value doesn’t end there, if you want to take on even more risk in a weekly contest to play for an upset, there’s another choice that is attractive in larger pools.

Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina)

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off their best game of the season, when they shut down New Orleans’ offense and won on the road. They get to go on the road to another division opponent this week, when they play Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog. As a fairly large favorite, our recommendations are generally to take the Panthers in seasonal prize pools, and even in smaller weekly pools. In large weekly contests, though, where you need to take on some extra risks to differentiate your entry, taking the Falcons is a decent play.

Currently, only 12% of the public is taking the Falcons, while our models are giving them a 34% of pulling off the upset against the Panthers. The Falcons over the Panthers is coming in just ahead of the Chargers (35% win odds, 13% pick popularity) and the Texans (33% win odds, 11% pick popularity) when it comes to larger upset potential plays in weekly contests, though the ordering of those teams could change based on injury news and line movements.

Value Favorites

Week 11 features a favorite that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no brainer picks” in NFL pick’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh)

Last week, the Browns were our highlighted value favorite going against Buffalo at home. Cleveland is back again as a favorite who is being picked less than half the time by the public. The Browns are a 2.5-point favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Thursday Night’s game, with win odds of around 56%. They aren’t as unpopular as last week, but are still only being picked by 39% of the public in this one. The public seems to have fully jumped off the Browns’ bandwagon, at a time when the schedule is actually opening up a bit. Cleveland had played a very difficult opening half of the season schedule, especially when it came to opposing defenses, and may be providing value now as a result.

Favorites at a Reasonable Price

Most favorites are overrated by the public, but the teams below look more fairly valued in Week 11. You should think twice about picking against them, not because we think they are a lock to win (we certainly don’t), but because other games offer more compelling upset pick opportunities.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville)

The Indianapolis Colts have had an interesting journey when it comes to the public popularity. They were very unpopular, and often a great value play, early in the season as they were competitive with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Then, they went through a stretch over the last few weeks where the public climbed aboard, and they lost consecutive close games to the Steelers and Dolphins. The Colts, by the way, have had every game decided by 7 points or less, making them only the second team since the 1970 merger to be involved in nine straight games that close to open the season.

Now, they are favored over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home by 3.5 points, with win odds of 64%. The public is taking them 70% of the time, pretty reasonable given their win odds. That pick popularity, though, puts them well below the other four games with a point spread of between 3.5 and 4.5 points this week, making them a value. That’s why, as of right now, the Colts are a recommendation in straight up pools across both weekly and seasonal prize types, and why they are bumped up a little in confidence point pools with weekly prize structures.

[UPDATE (Sunday, 11/17): With line movement downward on the Colts, and the point spread now at 2.5 points (tied for smallest line of the week) the Colts are no longer a reasonable value, and the Jaguars are a potential weekly option. Washington are similarly favored by 2.5 points over the Jets and are only being picked by 46% of the public, making them the better value in this range.]

Buffalo Bills (at Miami)

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a disappointing loss at Cleveland where the public was heavily on them, while the Miami Dolphins have won two straight. That explains why the public is a little more willing to pick the upset this week (12% pick popularity). We have the Bills with the fourth-highest win odds this week, at 72%, behind only the three double-digit favorites (San Francisco, Oakland, and Minnesota).

With several other favorites drawing similar pick popularity to the Bills, but having lower win odds, Buffalo looks like a good value play across all formats. That’s why you will likely seeing us recommend the Bills in most “straight up” pool types, and at high confidence in those that are using confidence points.

Don’t Forget to Check Your Custom Week 11 Pick’em Picks

If you are a pick’em subscriber, you have access to the customized pick’em picks for your specific pools. Remember that the information here is written earlier in the week, is a more general summary of the week that may not be applicable to your pool rules, and some information could be outdated by Sunday. Pick popularity can change over the course of a week, and injury news and line movements can alter which picks are the best for your pool. So don’t forget to visit our Football Pick’em Picks before your deadline to submit picks and see your customized pick advice, and also visit the NFL Survivor Picks and NFL Betting Picks.

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